REFERENCES AND QUOTES Philosophy 2021 Establish ecological limits, a question about scale - References and quotes SUSTAINABILITY ECONOMICS: WHERE DO WE STAND? Limits already exceeded. Figure 5. 286 287 Figure 6. “There is little chance of a ‘no-growth’ scenario like Fig. 5, and few would advocate it. However, economic development in the developing countries over the next half century at recent growth rates, combined with unavoidable population growth, will inevitably require massive increases in the consumption of natural resources, more like (Fig. 6).” The inconvenient growth truth. 287 Increase in population and Factor 10 Club. 288 Figure 8 what we need. 289 More growth means more material, excacerbated by population growth. Peak oil and other peaking resources. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER, DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST 290 Spaceship economy, highly energy intensive. Ecological and environmental process must be integrated in economy. See DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST, MEASURING REGENERATIVE ECONOMICS: 10 PRINCIPLES AND MEASURES UNDERGIRDING SYSTEMIC ECONOMIC HEALTH. Strong sustainability – substitution is not possible. 291 I THE ENTROPY LAW AND THE ECONOMIC PROCESS IN RETROSPECT Degrading material and problems of recycling 7 The upshot is that material vital for technology will sooner rather than later become extremely scares in the available form, not 7. Low entropy is value. Scarcity is steadily increases. 8 ”Until we discover cavorite we should not induce people to build multistory houses with neither stairs nor elevators” 14 I DECOUPLING DEBUNKED – EVIDENCE AND ARGUMENTS AGAINST GREEN GROWTH AS A SOLE STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABILITY I PROSPERITY WITHOUT GROWTH Finite planet. “Any credible vision of prosperity must hold a defensible position on the question of limits. This is particularly true of a vision based on growth. How – and for how long – is continued growth possible without coming up against ecological and resource constraints?” See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER, DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST 41 History of “Limits to growth”. Rome Club and “the predicament to mankind”. Forrester and the first system dynamics model of the resource dependency of the global economy. From Forrester sketch the MIT-group with Donella Meadows created the report “Limits to growth” with a robust analysis. “At the heart of Limits to Growth lies a remarkably robust analysis of the relationships between population, technology, industrial capital, agriculture and environmental quality. Though these interdependencies are complex, the dynamics are relatively easy to convey. Typically, argued the MIT team, the pattern of industrial development is running along predictable lines. As more and more people achieve higher and higher levels of affluence, they consume more and more of the world’s resources. Material growth cannot continue indefinitely because planet earth is physically limited. Eventually, the scale of activity passes the carrying capacity of the environment, resulting in a sudden contraction – either controlled or uncontrolled. First the resources supporting humanity – food, minerals, industrial output – begin to decline. This is followed by a collapse in population.” Energy Return On Investment. Increasing prices on scarce resources. 48 Studies confirming scenarios of Limits to growth. Have to stop profligate extraction and use of resources. Resource dependency of the system. Positive and negative feedbacks. Strong positive feedbacks and possibility to change – harder to change when scarcities set in and planning ahead it is better than planning late. Drive more slowly than battling delays. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER 50 Stockholm Resilience Center and passing 9 boundaries/limits. Running out of planet 54 “This extraordinary ramping up of global economic activity is without historical precedent. It’s totally at odds with the finite resource base and the fragile ecology on which we depend for survival.” “No subsystem of a finite system can grow indefinitely – at least in physical terms. Economists have to be able to answer the question of how a continually growing economic system can fit within a finite ecological system. The only answer available is that growth in dollars must be ‘decoupled’ from growth in physical throughputs and environmental impacts. But as we shall see more clearly in what follows, this hasn’t so far achieved what’s needed. There are no prospects for it doing so in the immediate future. And the sheer scale of decoupling required to meet the limits set out here (and stay within them in perpetuity while the economy keeps on growing) staggers the imagination.” 57 Limits and freedom. Limits and finite ecological resources and scale of population. 94 Establishing limits 212 “The conditions of equity and ecological limits, taken together, suggest a key role for the model known as ‘contraction and convergence’ in which equal per capita allowances are established under an ecological cap that converges towards a sustainable level. This approach has been applied, to some extent, for carbon. Similar caps could be established for the extraction of scarce non-renewable resources, for the emission of wastes (particularly toxic and hazardous wastes), for the drawing down of ‘fossil’ groundwater supplied and for the rate of harvesting of renewable resources.” 214 I ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS Optimal scale and fair distribution replaces growth (and full employment) as a goal in ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS – PRINCIPLES AND APPLICATIONS. See THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER on setting goals of a system 223 When does growth become uneconomic? How are we going to deal with overpopulation, inequitable distribution and involuntary unemployment? 226 Resource throughput has increase 9-fold between 1950 and 2000 note 5 318 Scale and sustainability and justice and distribution are not determined by market economics but are biophysical and cultural. 364 Impose quantitative restrictions on the market that limit the scale of throughput and the degree of inequality. The limits reflect the social values of justice and sustainability. They are collective values that cannot be captured in the market of personal tastes. 365 First control point is to limit the narrowest point, the inflow. 366 Ecosystem car about quantities extracted and not prices therefore are quotas better than tax in setting limits. 366, 367 Direct regulation when something activity or substance is unacceptable 373 Tradable permits and setting quotas 379 I THINKING IN SYSTEMS – A PRIMER We don’t like limits. All inputs are limited, therefore all outputs, are limited! Example of needs of industrial manufacturing. Example of the need of a patch of growing grain needs. 100 Limiting factor. “At any given time, the input that is most important to a systems is the one that is most limiting.” Economics evolved when labor and capital were the limiting factors. Now the limiting factor are the earth, dump space, acceptable forms of energy and raw materials. 101 Layers of limits. “Growth itself depletes or enhances limits and therefore change what is limiting”. Understanding layers of limits is not a recipe for perpetual growth. “For any physical entity in a finite environment, perpetual growth is impossible. Ultimately, the choice is not to grow forever but to decide what limits to live within.” “Any physical entity with multiple inputs and outputs is surrounded by layers of limits” 102 Limits by human beings or environment. “There always will be limits to growth. They can be self-imposed. If they aren’t they will be system-imposed” 103 I THE EMPATHIC CIVILIZATION: THE RACE TO GLOBAL CONSCIOUSNESS IN A WORLD IN CRISISGrowing population using up energy resources. Depletion of wood. 326 Entropic bill of 800 year period of European expansion. Europe were able to convert into a new energy regime to avert a collapse. The use of coal. 329 I DOUGHNUT ECONOMICS: SEVEN WAYS TO THINK LIKE A 21ST-CENTURY ECONOMIST Quotas, tiered pricing and taxes don’t do enough because of problem in setting required level to bring down environmental impacts of the economy. See COLONIALISM IN THE ANTROPOCENE: THE POLITICAL ECOLOGY OF THE MONEY-ENERGY-TECHNOLOGY COMPLEX 15 MYTEN OM MASKINEN: ESSÄER OM MAKT; MODERNITET OCH MILJÖ 63, 64 Instead work with paradigm/mindset and the goal of the system 176 State as regulator, “Taxes and subsidies can move markets, as we have seen, but the transformation from degenerative to regenerative industrial design needs to be backed by regulation too. At its most simple, it means phasing out the use of ‘red list’ chemicals and polluting productions processes, while phasing in the use of life-friendly chemistry only, along with net-zero and net-positive industrial standards. The world’s most progressive enterprises are already aiming to perform to such standards: economy-wide regulation requiring regenerative design will ultimately help to move those ambitious business practices from being a rare exception to becoming the industry norm.” Market is not enough. State as a risk-taking partner for sustainability – Chinese government providing finance and other support for renewable energy. The Oberlin Project. Orr “We need to recalibrate prosperity with the way that ecosystems work and what they can actually regenerate” 196
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